When Japan’s ruling political party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), votes on Friday for its next leader, it will effectively be choosing the country’s next Prime Minister.
A slew of scandals have plagued the tenure of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who announced in August he would step down after assuming power in 2021. From his son throwing a party at an official residence to alleged fundraising misconduct by party members, the scandals in addition to underwhelming economic reform have dented the LDP’s popularity and forced a reset.
A record nine lawmakers are standing in the intra-party election, competing for majority support among the party’s 368 members of parliament and 368 representatives of its more than a million dues-paying rank-and-file members. Most candidates, according to AP, have vowed to call for a general election, which isn’t due until October 2025, shortly after being elevated within the party, to try to capitalize on their fresh image.
The key issue at stake for the LDP is restoring public trust. That change, many observers have noted, could come in the form of a first-ever female LDP president. Two of the nine candidates—including one of the three top contenders—are women. Japan is the only G7 country other than the U.S. that has never had a female head of government, and some within the party have said such a move could go a long way toward boosting its image.
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But experts tell TIME that despite the momentum and opportunity, the party is unlikely to pick a female leader, citing its patriarchal history, internal politics, and lack of political competition.
Among the women floated for the Sept. 27 LDP presidential election is Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, a veteran LDP politician likened to the U.K.’s Margaret Thatcher. Takaichi ran in 2021, backed by the late premier Shinzo Abe, and came in third. LDP supporters prefer her as the next Japanese Prime Minister, according to a Kyodo News poll.
There’s also incumbent Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, 71, who was praised as a “rising star” by party vice president and former Prime Minister Taro Aso, a reputed “kingmaker.”
A Pew Research Center poll earlier this year found that Japan has a high share of citizens who “say that men and women generally make equally good leaders.” But the LDP cares little about public opinion, at least in the context of female representation. “For the LDP, the inside politics, inner politics is the most important issue,“ Mikiko Eto, professor emerita on gender and politics at Hosei University in Tokyo, tells TIME, adding that for the LDP, women have been used primarily as tokens. In 2021, LDP seniors had called on women party members to join key meetings in the wake of sexist remarks from a former Prime Minister, but it was revealed that the women members were only permitted to observe and not speak.
Hiroko Takeda, who teaches political science at Nagoya University’s Graduate School of Law, says the LDP has become “a separate universe” in Japan. Parliamentary posts are treated by LDP members as house or family businesses which are “inherited,” says Takeda, making it hard for political novices—especially women—to get into key positions.
While opposition parties have elevated women to leadership positions, Emma Dalton, senior lecturer in Japanese Studies at La Trobe University in Australia, says they are too weak to ramp up pressure on the LDP to demand greater inclusivity. “[The LDP] are in a little bit of trouble, and I think they recognize that. But at the same time, the Japanese public, I think, just look around and say, ‘Well, where is the realistic opposition?’”
Among the other frontrunners in the LDP presidential election are former defense minister and LDP veteran Shigeru Ishiba, 67, who is running for the fifth time. Another favorite is Shinjiro Koizumi, the 43-year-old son of former premier Junichiro Koizumi. Shinjiro Koizumi, who is more than a decade younger than the average Japanese member of parliament, would also offer a stark shift for the LDP, which has struggled to enthuse youth voters. Also running is maverick-turned-insider Taro Kono, the current digital minister who previously ran to lead the party in 2021 and lost to Kishida in a run-off.
Still, it’s not impossible to see either of the female candidates win the Friday election, which is expected to go to a run-off. But while a victory for either would be a feat for Japan on the international stage, it would not necessarily indicate a shift in how the LDP treats women. Eto from Hosei University predicts that while Kamikawa could steer the LDP to be more women-friendly, “she won’t act in accordance with her campaign pledges because of political conventions and customs within the party.” As for the more conservative Takaichi, “she behaves like men,” Eto says, “often hostile toward feminist issues or gender matters.”