The winner of the annual Nobel Peace Prize is set to be announced on Friday.
The title has been bestowed upon U.S. presidents Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, activists Wangari Maathai and Malala Yousafzai—who won in 2014 alongside Kailash Satyarthi for their work “against the suppression of children and young people and for the right of all children to education”—and organizations such as Doctors Without Borders and the World Food Programme.
The prize is chosen by a five-person committee composed of Norwegian nationals, which this year includes Norwegian Minister of Education Kristin Clemet, politician Jørgen Watne Frydnes, and scholar Asle Toje, among others. Nominations can only be made by a select group of qualified individuals, including cabinet members, heads of state, university professors, previous Nobel Peace Prize winners, etc.
Last year, the prize was awarded to human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, who is currently imprisoned, for her work against the oppression of Iranian women.
The Nobel Institute received 286 nominations this year—89 of which are organizations. By comparison, there were 351 submissions for the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize.
Information about potential winners remains tight-lipped, as nominees for a given year are not revealed until a half-decade later. “In so far as certain names crop up in the advance speculations as to who will be awarded any given year’s prize, this is either sheer guesswork or information put out by the person or persons behind the nomination,” the Nobel Prize website says.
Here’s a list of potential Nobel Peace Prize winners based on the odds from the Nicerodds.co.uk betting site and the annual shortlist created by Henrik Urdal, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), though it’s possible the winner has not made either of the shortlists.
OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
Amid rising authoritarianism, organizations like the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, are working to promote democratic elections across Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia and North America.
“Democracy is on the ballot this year as more than half the world’s population live in a country heading to the polls, albeit not exclusively in democracies,” said Urdal in a press release. “As elections are a cornerstone of democracy, election observers play a pivotal role in shaping perceptions about the legitimacy of electoral processes. A Nobel Peace Prize awarded to election observers sends a strong message about the importance of free and fair elections, and their role in peace and stability.” The organization observes elections in 57 countries.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
Sudan is facing one of the “worst humanitarian crisis in the world,” as hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the country settle in bordertown camps experiencing famine, disease, and violence, and another 10 million are internally displaced. In response to the growing need, volunteers have started emergency response rooms (ERRS) that tackle tasks like repairing power lines, and providing medical care, food, water, and protection for people, according to the U.N. “As 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the revised Geneva Conventions, which were developed to protect civilians during war, awarding this year’s Peace Prize to a deserving humanitarian initiative such as the Emergency Response Rooms would highlight the critical importance of access to lifesaving aid in times of conflict,” said Urdal.
International Court of Justice
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the judicial body of the United Nations that settles global disputes between member states. The court has been involved in conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and earlier this year put Israel on trial for committing genocide against Palestinians. This January, the ICJ ordered Israel to “take all measures within its power” to stop such acts in Gaza. It also found that Israel had an “unlawful presence” in the occupied Palestinian territory, and advised Israel to “cease immediately all new settlement activities, and to evacuate all settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territory,” in a July advisory opinion.
More than 41,000 people have been killed in Gaza, per the Hamas-run Gaza Ministry of Health, since the Israel-Hamas War began a year ago when Hamas kidnapped more than 200 hostages and killed 1,200 people on Oct. 7 2023.
UNRWA and Philippe Lazzarini
Since 1949, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has helped refugees access health care, education, and provided emergency response support during periods of conflict. The organization, led by Commissioner general Philippe Lazzarini, assists Palestinians refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.
The UNRWA has also been working to respond to Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon, opening emergency shelters to help refugees. Nearly 2,000 people have died in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
In January, it was alleged that UNRWA staff members were involved in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack against Israel. An internal investigation found that for nine cases, if evidence is cross-checked, it “could indicate that the UNRWA staff members may have been involved in the attacks of 7 October,” according to an August UNRWA press release. Those employees were fired, but the U.S. cut funding to the UNRWA.
UNESCO and the Council of Europe
The UN’s Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) works to increase peace and security by promoting international dialogue and cooperation among member states in areas like education, science, and culture. The organization’s work came to be in the midst of World War II, as leaders looked to how to restore their “education systems once peace was restored,” according to the UNESCO site.
The Council of Europe, which was “founded on the assumption that understanding the past is essential for building a shared future,” also focuses on history education.
“UNESCO emphasizes the importance of understanding history in a global context as well as developing regional, complimentary perspectives,” said Urdal. “A Nobel Peace Prize for the promotion of peace through history education would resonate well with Alfred Nobel’s call for ‘fraternity between nations’.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is one of the biggest contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize, according to a U.K. betting site. The state leader has been the face of resilience amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine that started in 2022. Urdal previously told TIME, though, that it’s unlikely that the Nobel Peace Prize will go to someone that is in the midst of a war.
Zelensky was selected as TIME’s Person of the Year in 2022.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Belarusian politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who challenged Belarusian state leader Alexander Lukashenko for the presidency in 2020, also ranked high on the U.K. betting site. Tsikhanouskaya currently lives in exile due to her work challenging the existing regime, but continues to meet with international leaders, most recently meeting with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide to discuss the release of political prisoners, Belarusian migration issues, and closing sanction loopholes.
Belarusian human rights advocate Ales Bialiatski won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, a year in which Tsikhanouskaya was among the favorites to win.
Ilham Tohti
This year marked human rights activist Ilham Tohti’s ten-year anniversary in Chinese detention due to his advocacy on behalf of Uyghurs. “When Ilham Tohti promoted cooperation and peaceful coexistence between China’s Uyghur and Han communities, the Chinese government responded with repression and imprisonment. His decade-long incarceration is a further shameful stain on China’s troubled human rights record,” said Agnes Callamard, Secretary General of Amnesty International, in a September press release. Tohti has been outspoken about China’s discrimination, crimes against humanity, and genocide of Uyghurs and other minority groups.
If he wins, he would join the five other Nobel Peace Prize winners who have won the award while in jail, including last year’s recipient.
Greta Thunberg
Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg sparked worldwide conversation on climate change when she organized the “School Strike for Climate” outside the Swedish parliament in 2018. The young activist remains involved in the movement, even getting arrested in Brussels for protesting against fossil fuel subsidies on Oct. 5. As 2023 was the hottest year on record, and devastating natural disasters, like hurricanes, become more dangerous due to climate change, the topic remains fresh on people’s minds.
The climate activist has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize every year from 2019 to 2023, according to the BBC.
Thunberg was TIME’s 2019 Person of the Year, the youngest-ever recipient.